Articles to 2019-11-29

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Contrary to many other studies that merely record how beach-front areas, that used to be shunned by older, wiser generations, have become densely settled recently and the inflation of insured property value, Grinsted et al. offer real data and are to be taken seriously. Hurricane activity and strength has really been increasing in recent decades. Or has it? Looking at table 1 and figure 2a, it seems their whole result mostly hinges on one single event alone, although even without it the spikes have become denser on the time scale. On the other hand this rise is not really unexpected and has to be evaluated in the long term. As we know from Dezileau 2011, Donnelly 2007, and Mann 2009 (list of 2012-06-09) most of the 20th century has been an exceptionally calm time for hurricane activity. So a certain rebound was to be expected and does not necessary point to a new and unprecedented state. As such the amount of human influence, though almost certainly present, is probably much less than is often made out.

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