Articles to 2020-05-16

Zum Seitenende      Übersicht Artikel      Home & Impressum

First the link to this week's complete list as HTML and as PDF.


I have no idea how something like Dorn et al. can ever get written much less published. Their study may have a certain value in quantifying the cost of anti-Covid measures but even those are highly distorted by wrong expectations. Their two main assumptions on which everything rests are plainly wrong. Their first premise, that up to 300 cases per day can be traced and contacts isolated in time to prevent further spreading is plucked out of thin air without any substantiation whatsoever. This is exactly the situation and method from the beginning of March. It didn't work then and since nothing has changed it won't work now. Things might change with the much touted contact app, but they don't even mention that once. Secondly they claim a current Rt of 0.63 that could be loosened to 0.75. That claim is simply and completely wrong. According to both the official statements by the RKI and from simple checks on the basis of reported case numbers Rt has never once sunk below 0.9, at most 0.8, in Germany. So with both premises wrong the conclusions are meaningless.

Zum Anfang      Übersicht Artikel      Home & Impressum

Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported License Viewable With Any Browser Valid HTML 4.01! Valid CSS!