Articles to 2021-11-21

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First the link to this week’s complete list as HTML and as PDF.


Unfortunately there are no excess mortality data to be had for India and Kenya. Following Brand et al. and Dhar et al. Covid seems already to have passed through three quarters of the population in both countries and left them with a higher immunity than vaccination can confer. It seems that all the German suppression has only delayed the epidemic so far and that the real wave here is yet to come.


There is no data supplement with Steyer & Kappler, so for a closer look I’d have to redo it from scratch. A couple of points jump out, though. They only look at a short stretch of only five weeks. Covid waves are not synchronous. After a wave has just hit, the most vulnerable mortality tends to go down for a bit. Mitigation measures also suppress other illnesses that then hit the susceptible after relaxing them. More important is the very coarse partition by Länder of widely varying size. A more appropriate choice would have been the (110) 400 Kreise or the 30 Regierungsbezirke. Not all Länder have them, but the large ones do, so it’s a good fit. Applying the basic rule "if you cain’t see it, it ain’t there" their diagram doesn’t show anything. Guessing visually (I’d have loved to have their data for this) it seems to me, that just eliminating the large Northrhine-Westfalia (NW) would make their correlation go away. Anything that hinges on one single data point can be disregarded.


Compared to Khelifa all German students are incomparably privileged. Still what he has to say about the importance of learning English should be taken to heart and the earlier the better.

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